A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
